OBSERVATIONS
By Omar Moore
You Orns!
Despite Leeds getting an improbable win at Wolves on Friday night, Watford still control their destiny with five home games, four of them against teams in the bottom six. Even though two of those bottom six teams have games in hand (Burnley, Everton), no team is better poised to control their own fate than Watford are. Burnley, Everton, Brentford and Leeds all visit Vicarage Road and if Watford win all of those games plus their final home game against Leicester on May 15, the Hornets will be safe.
And we haven’t even talked about the away opportunity at Crystal Palace, which Watford already seem scripted to win, what with Roy Hodgson returning to his former employer, along with Ray Lewington, looking to avenge a cringe-worthy home hammering by Palace in February. Six wins would get Watford to 40 points, but with the likely safety marker being 37 points, Watford need five wins or any combination of 15 points to have another season of Premier League football.
While Friday night’s 3-2 Wolves home loss undoubtedly hurt, there was obviously nothing Watford could have done about the Wolves-Leeds match no matter the result. What would truly hurt is any Watford failure to win their remaining home matches. Watford fans, a sizable swath of whom for months have predicted a Championship return at season’s end, should remember that even though Leeds have 29 points, nothing changes what Watford must do.
Keep in mind: Leeds were already four points ahead of Watford before their Friday night match at Wolves kicked off. The silver lining is that Watford have an excellent opportunity to close Leeds down on April 9 at Vicarage Road. That will be the game that *really* matters. And it is a game Watford absolutely must win.
The horrid home form will be on the minds of most of the doubting Watford contingent, with a club record eight consecutive home losses in their minds assumedly heading to nine. Surely that dreadful run is poised to come to an end very soon. An improved performance at The Vic against Arsenal will have provided encouragement for Watford players despite the eventual 3-2 defeat. Watford battled in the match against the Gunners, but it was individual errors that hurt the ‘Orns in the end.
Overall, Watford are showing signs of getting the balance right over recent weeks (at Villa Park, at Old Trafford, at St. Mary’s) but the consistency must come at home now, especially in this business end of the season. As Roy Hodgson’s philosophies continue to be implemented and executed the balance at home between attack and defence will come, and not a moment too soon.
Key to that balance will be Emmanuel Dennis, short of confidence lately in a number of very underwhelming performances. Dennis hasn’t scored since the 1-0 win at Villa in mid-February but over this fortnight his time away from the Premier League with his Nigeria international teammates will benefit him. Dennis appears to be pressing to score in some of the recent matches and his final decision-making has been poor. Hopefully Dennis returns to Watford with a clear head, less selfish play and an eye for goal, as Watford will need it and his swagger.
Though Dennis has struggled his teammate Cucho Hernandez has prospered, scoring five goals overall in the Premier League this season and three goals in the last three matches. With goals from Moussa Sissoko (two in the league so far) Watford have numerous players who can find the back of the net. Seven different goalscorers have netted for Watford in the Premier League this season (Dennis, Sarr, Hernandez, King, Kucka, Joao Pedro, Sissoko.)
Certainly all is not lost for Watford in this fight for survival in the Premier League. Though it will be a difficult and nervy road ahead the Hertfordshire outfit are in good position to take advantage of this priceless opportunity, especially given the fixtures of other teams around them. Brentford, even with their 30 points and two wins (against Norwich and Burnley) on the spin (after six consecutive losses), are firmly part of the relegation scrap because of their remaining fixtures.
Here are Brentford’s matches, in order:
15th place: BRENTFORD 30 points (-13 goal difference)
at Leicester
at Chelsea
v West Ham
at Watford
v Tottenham
at Manchester United
v Southampton
at Everton
v Leeds
These are not easy fixtures for Brentford. Note who their final two matches are against. Given the fact Brentford have three of their next four matches away including at Watford, the next four games will be a key test of Brentford’s mettle. Usually a team with 30 points with nine games to play is safe. Yet newly promoted Brentford have a daunting task ahead. They are not entirely out of trouble by any means.
Remember that Leeds, who have a staggering -33 goal difference (inferior to Watford’s goal difference), also have a similarly challenging fixture list.
Regardless of their seven-point lead over Watford, Leeds are yet to visit The Vic and end their season at Brentford. In between Leeds host the likes of an irrepressible Chelsea side and a Manchester City side looking to repeat as Premier League champions. Among other games Leeds will travel to Arsenal, who are chasing top four and have been near flawless over the last four months. The Arsenal match is the next one after City visit Elland Road. Leeds, whom Watford have a game in hand on, are firmly in this scrap. Don’t let their 29 points fool you.
15th place: LEEDS 29 points (-13 goal difference)
v Southampton
at Watford
v Chelsea
at Palace
v Manchester City
at Arsenal
v Brighton
at Brentford
For Watford fans reading this who remain unconvinced of Watford’s chances of survival in the Premier League, consider Everton. Sure, they got a massive win a few days ago against Newcastle, but in truth the Toffees were due for that. Everton hadn’t won in the Premier League since December 6, 2021 and had tumbled precipitously down the table. The law of averages deemed such a late victory against Newcastle possible despite Everton’s protracted struggles.
If Everton overcome Crystal Palace in their F.A. Cup quarter final match this weekend they will be preoccupied with additional matches to the eleven Premier League matches already on their congested schedule. Which plays to Watford’s advantage. Moreover, Everton’s remaining fixtures, despite having two games in hand, are significantly worse than every one of the other five teams fighting against relegation.
17th place: EVERTON 25 points (-18 goal difference)
at West Ham
at Burnley
v Manchester United
v Leicester
at Liverpool
v Chelsea
at Leicester
v Brentford
at Arsenal
TBC:
v Palace
at Watford
All of Everton’s away games are difficult — and Watford have a chance to beat Everton at Vicarage Road when they are eventually scheduled. There isn’t a weak opponent in Everton’s group of games. And Everton have to play Leicester City twice, and visit claret teams West Ham and fellow strugglers Burnley in successive games, plus walk across Stanley Park to face title chasers Liverpool at Anfield, not to mention Arsenal at the Emirates. Everton also host Chelsea, Leicester and Manchester United. Tall task.
When you consider that Watford will have Ismaila Sarr and Nicolas Nkoulou back soon there is an excellent chance Watford will get the job done. You wouldn’t want a better chance than Watford have of staying up. Add to that Hodgson’s experience of keeping teams in the Premier League and Watford are in the best possible position. (Frank Lampard, Jesse Marsch and Thomas Frank don’t have Hodgson’s experience escaping Premier League relegation.)
All Watford must do now is execute.
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